BUSH AND ASSOCIATES CONSULTING Performance Specialists:
News and Views
vol.
11
;
editor: Maureen
Alear &n
bsp;
March 2003
The work of our teams is grounded in a unified philosophy that - in
demonstrable and practical ways - is shaping the
effectiveness of organizations around the world.
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IN THIS ISSUE
Kyoto Impact on Canada - Part 1: Policy
IRAQI OIL: Follow the Money
THE ECONOMY: The Next Quarter
readers Q & A: Another Scam
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Advertisement - Kyoto Impact by Industry Sector - US$50.00 For
details
on how to order your sector report, email
us with your SIC number or name of your industry or company.
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TIP OF THE WEEK
The greatest resistance to change does not come from the lower levels
of the organization, but from the upper levels. It is those levels which
have made successful careers under the old paradigms. When the market
shifts
around them, they will do more of the outdated activities, not try new
things. Tap your Young Turks to thrive in the changed environment.
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KYOTO Impact on Canada - Part 1: Policy
The signing of the Kyoto Protocol is a continuation of the Federal
government's policy of the past forty years. It is another program in the
misallocation (redistribution) of resources away from industries of
comparative
advantage (forestry, mining, fisheries) and their synergistic industries
to industries with less benefit to the economy (automotive, aerospace,
medical, telecommunications). Regardless of the Protocol, as technology
changes, emissions will decline as it makes good business sense to do so.
The protocol will force either increased costs or shutdowns earlier than
necessary for some firms resulting in competitive disadvantages and lost
jobs. All to achieve an emissions number which has still not been
conclusively
correlated to climate change. Drastic measures to gain political points
with special interests to reduce Canada's 3% of world emissions. At least
it keeps the economy on its downward trend, increasing the performance
gap which currently sits at $250 billion / year.
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IRAQI OIL: Follow the Money
The UN indecision over Iraq is driven by oil interests. The French,
Russian and to a lesser extent Chinese, oil supplies and business
activities
in Iraq are key to their opposition to deposing the regime of Hussein.
The economic impact of a military incursion and the uncertainty of the
friendliness of the successor regime have motivated them to fight for
maintaining
the status quo. On the other side, the US and UK have few bvusiness
interests
in Iraq with little to lose and potentially much to gain from a change
of regime and in direct relations with their allies.
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THE ECONOMY - The Next Quarter
Feds Miss Another Opportunity: Trade mission to UK, Netherlands and
Italy postponed due to uncertainty over Iraq situation. Regardless of
possible
military action in Iraq, the countries being visited do not have
significant
business interests in Iraq, therefore, the Trade mission is well timed.
Canadian business has yet another missed opportunity for expanding
markets
and contacts. Given that there are no good business reasons for the
postponement,
then the resultant lost opportunities rest squarely on the political
agenda
of the Liberals and their advisors, to the disadvantage of the Canadian
economy and its workers.
Soft Market Indicators Hit Canada: The Conference Board of Canada has
reported that consumer spending is down with the debt load up. This is
consistent with the natural lag in the Canadian economy relative to world
trends. Also, consumption numbers were artificially supported by a spate
of hiring in the public sector. These low value jobs will contribute a
net negative effect to achievable GDP.
Continued Soft Markets: Markets will tend to remain soft through the
quarter. Sectoral and regional differences provide opportunities for
companies
to increase market presence in anticipation of the turnaround this fall.
Share values still have room to fall as the full effect of the tech and
consumer bubbles have not been equated into valuations. Expect technology
rationalizations to continue. Canadian mining, forestry and other export
weighted sectors face stiff public policy challenges with their best
options
off-shore investments. Demand in the automotive and aerospace sectors
will
decline further. Companies must focus on the longer term, the next five
to ten years, as short term woes show no signs of abating soon.
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NEWS BITES
Bombardier Stocks Down: deHavilland assets were dogs when purchased.
Bombardier management could not turn them around. They need to divest the
remaining assets. Bombardier itself has not redefined itself in its core
declining markets nor identified new and emerging markets for its
production
capabilities. Given this, expect yet another plea for funds from the
public
troughs (and donations to the LPC) until they get it right.
Interest rate increase: The main impact will be on the domestic
economy.
The exchange rate increase has accommodated the effect on international
markets. In Canada, debt financing costs will increase, making debt
investments
elsewhere more attractive. This anomaly may be to reduce an overage in
the money supply in Canada. We had hoped that the central Bank would have
taken the corrective regulatory measures to reduce the supply without
having
to resort to interest rate measures. Economic activity supporting long
term growth is not strong enough to sustain the differential versus other
countries. Inflationary factors magnified in this relatively small
economy,
must be weighted by trendicators more effectively before increasing the
cost of debt and financing in the economy.
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OUR READERS Q & A
Q. Is this for real? Received via email, sounds too good to be true.
Neil Cosgrove, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
FROM: MR. TEDDY OWENS JAMES
TEL: 0031-630-062-608
I would like to begin by way of introduction.My name is TEDDY O.
JAMES,a
native of Capetown-South Africa and a senior employee to the South Africa
Ministry of energy and Mineral Resources currently here in Amsterdam-
Netherlands
on a 3 months civil service research.
I ran into your personal information, in search of a trustworthy and
reliable person with the office of chamber of commerce in Brussel ,
though
i did not disclose the purpose of search. I am writing this letter to
solicite
your co-operation in order to redeem an investment interest currently
being
held under trust with the South Africa Ministry of energy and mineral
resources.The
said investment now valued at US$36.500.000.00 (Thirty six million five
hundred United State Dollars) was consolidated mining corporation in 1985
for 14 years.
Since the maturity of this contract in August 1999,several attempt
have
been made without success to contact MR. MOORE MOFFAT or any of his close
relatives,in whose favour the investment cash value could be paid to. My
partner who is the account director at Ministry of energy and Mineral
resources
and two other collegues,have initiated the process of filing a claim for
this money,with the hope of having these funds transferred into a safe
OVERSEA ACCOUNT. We as civil service officials are deprive by law of the
legal right to opperate oversea bank account, under the Constitutional
Assembly civil service constitutional finacial code conduct bureau (Act
-0221/s-sec GDF/47-ZA) on 8th-may -1996 of REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA.
We would FILE-IN A CLAIM for this money with the Ministry claiming
that
you were appointed by MR. MOORE MOFFAT to be the beneficiary to these
funds.The
approval procedure of this claim, take 5-7 working days. As soon as the
claim is approved, the stated sum of US$36.500.000.00 (Thirty six million
five hundred thousand United State Dollars ) will be transferred into an
account of your choice,after which my collegues and I shall travel to
meet
with you for the disbursement of the fund. Since the money will be in
your
custody,you have the responsibility to ensure that my collegues and I
receive
85% of the total sum while 10% for your assistance in putting claim and
providing an oversea account; 5% have been set aside for any incidential
expences that might be incured in the cource of this transaction.
Please we urgue you to keep this affair STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
,because
we are still in active Government service. I want to assure you that my
partners are in position to make the payment of this claim
possible,provided
you agree to meet with us and give us the guarantee that our share will
be well secure in your care. Be rest assured that there is absolutely
nothing
to worry about in view of this claim; for your role is RISK FREE, and it
not subject to any enquiry as my partner will handle the claims directly
on behalf in South Africa.
Please acknowledge the receipt of this letter by urgently contacting
me through telephone (+31-630-062-608) and e-mail for details of this
transaction.
I look forward to your prompt respond.
Yours truly, TEDDY O. JAMES
NOTE: YOUR PHONE NUMBER IS VERY IMPORTANT, AS BUSINESS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE
AND NATURE IS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE DONE VIA E-MAIL
A. This is a SCAM. We have confirmed with the RCMP that these are sent
out in mass emailings, netting a few marks. When you receive such an
email,
just delete. M. Alear
contact us: newsletter
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